THE OFFICE OF UNFOUNDED OPTIMISM
Your optimism has been flagged. An investigation is underway.
We investigate optimism that lacks evidentiary basis. Not pessimism. That is a different office. We investigate whether your belief that things will go right has any factual support. In most cases, it does not.
The Office is not opposed to optimism. It is opposed to unfounded optimism. Founded optimism — optimism based on evidence, precedent, or reasonable probability — is encouraged. The Office has never encountered it. It remains open to the possibility.
Recent Investigations
UO-2025-0041
"This will only take five minutes."
SubjectA homeowner attempting a minor plumbing repair.
BasisA YouTube video titled "Easy Fix in 5 Minutes."
Notice IssuedYes.
DETERMINATION: UNFOUNDED
UO-2025-0199
"We're on track for Q3 targets."
SubjectA Series B SaaS company.
BasisAn internal slide deck with a hockey stick growth curve. The phrase "conservative estimate" appeared 14 times. The company's definition of "conservative" was not consistent with any recognized definition of the word.
Notice IssuedYes. Elevated to Watch List.
DETERMINATION: UNFOUNDED
UO-2025-0901
"This time will be different."
Subject[CLASSIFIED]
Basis[CLASSIFIED]
FindingsIt was not different.
NoteThis is our most frequently filed investigation category. We no longer investigate individual instances. We have issued a standing determination.
DETERMINATION: UNFOUNDED